Title: Revisiting Future Electricity Demand and Supply Scenarios for Pakistan - Research Study by LUMS Energy Institute
Time: 9:30am – 12:30pm
Date: Tuesday, December 11, 2018
Venue: NIC Auditorium, SBASSE Basement, LUMS
Pakistan’s power sector has been oscillating between excess demand and excess supply for the past three decades. Even today we are in a dilemma where we are not sure about our electricity demand and supply equation. To some extent, the electricity crisis is still in place therefore we should continue to install more power plants to cover the energy crisis. Others say that we have already procured excess capacity and there should be a total ban on new power plants for the next five years or so. The demand of power varies with each instant and such variations need extensive evaluation as the financial implication of each megawatt of power, either shortage or excess, is so huge that the decision to install any new power should be taken with due diligence and in line with the expected demand scenario. Due to suboptimal decisions in the past we have paid PKR 350 billion on account of capacity in 2016-17, and PKR 490 billion in 2017-18. It is expected that the electricity consumers will bear a burden of about PKR 660 billion on account of procurement of fixed (capacity) charges during 2018-19.
LUMS Energy Institute has carried out power demand and supply analysis for Pakistan for the years 2018-2030. This analysis is based on the industrial strength demand forecasting techniques and we have simulated generation dispatch scenarios for the next decade or so using proven power system planning tools. The results of our study will be presented by Dr. Fiaz Chaudhry followed by open question and answer session.
Dr. Fiaz Chaudhry is a Professor of Practice in Electrical Engineering, (SBASSE) at LUMS. He also holds the distinguished Siemens Chair at the Syed Babar Ali School of Science and Engineering. He is the founding Director of LUMS Energy Institute. Dr. Chaudhry’s professional experience spans over 34 years in power system planning, research and development, consulting and utility management. He has developed master power plans for countries, regions and specific electric utilities, transmission owners and system operators ranging from a few years to 25 years. He also has led Demand Forecasting and Generation Planning Division at SCECO-East, Saudi Arabia, Primary Transmission Development in WAPDA, and Transmission Investment Planning at Uttar Pradesh Power Company, India, in addition to leading hundreds of power system planning, feasibility, design and system operation study projects for tons of electric utility clients across the globe. Dr. Chaudhry holds MS and PhD in Electrical Engineering from Illinois Institute of Technology and Purdue University, respectively.
Registration: Please sign up for participation in the seminar, here.